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Dave Pre-Q4 Earnings: Buy or Sell the Stock Ahead of Results?

Summary
Dave Inc., a leading fintech company, is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on March 3, after market close. Analysts expect the company to post a significant increase in revenues, with a consensus estimate of $341.3 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 31.7%. However, our model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Dave Inc. this time around.

Dave’s Upcoming Earnings Report: What Investors Need to Know
As the company prepares to release its fourth-quarter results, investors are eagerly awaiting the announcement. With a proven track record of delivering strong financial performance, Dave Inc. has been a favorite among investors in recent years. However, our analysis suggests that the company may face some challenges in posting an earnings beat this quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total earnings is pinned at $4.22 per share, which represents a significant improvement from the loss of $4.07 incurred by the company a year ago. The consensus estimate for revenues in the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $341.3 million, suggesting 31.7% growth on a year-over-year basis.

Rising Members and Low CAC Drive DAVE’s Growth
One key driver of Dave Inc.’s growth has been its ability to add new members while reducing its Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC). In the third quarter of 2024, new members grew by 19.3% year over year, while the CAC declined from $16 in the first quarter of 2024 to $15 in the third quarter of 2024.

This trend suggests that Dave Inc.’s business model is becoming increasingly efficient, allowing the company to attract new customers at a lower cost. As a result, the company’s top line has benefited significantly, with revenues growing by 31.7% year over year.

Investment Considerations: Why DAVE Remains a Strong Buy
Despite some challenges in posting an earnings beat this quarter, Dave Inc.’s investment considerations remain strong. The company has developed an innovative approach to short-term lending, targeting underserved customers who seek alternatives to payday loans and overdraft fees.

Dave Inc.’s fee structure is structured at 0-5%, allowing the company to generate significant revenues while providing a flexible solution for its customers. Additionally, the company’s use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) in operating its credit model has led to low credit losses and effective customer service.

Liquidity Position and Return on Equity: A Green Flag for Investors
Another key factor supporting Dave Inc.’s investment appeal is its liquidity position. The current ratio in the third quarter of 2024 stands at 6.81, significantly higher than the industry’s average of 2.21. This suggests that the company has a strong ability to pay its debts and maintain its financial stability.

Furthermore, Dave Inc.’s return on equity (ROE) in the third quarter of 2024 was an impressive 33.7%, well above the industry’s average of 6.2%. This indicates that the company is generating significant profits from its operations, which bodes well for investors.

Conclusion
In conclusion, while our model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Dave Inc. this quarter, the company’s investment considerations remain strong. With a proven track record of delivering strong financial performance, a growing member base, and a low CAC, Dave Inc.’s business model is well-positioned to drive growth in the coming quarters.

Investors who have been following the stock’s recent performance may be aware that it has skyrocketed by 269.4% in a year, outperforming its industry peers. With a discounted valuation and a strong liquidity position, we believe that Dave Inc.’s stock price will rally further.

Therefore, we recommend investors buy Dave Inc.’s stock now and add it to their portfolio this earnings season.