A review of data from two popular prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, reveals that bettors are wagering on a strong year for cryptocurrency markets in 2025. According to the analysis, traders expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) to reach record highs, while the United States is anticipated to approve several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin and Ether Price Targets
As of December 26, Kalshi prices more than 60% odds of BTC reaching at least $125,000 in 2025, while ETH is expected to surpass $5,000. Polymarket sets 50% odds of BTC touching $120,000 before the end of March. Currently, Bitcoin’s record high stands at around $108,300, and Ether’s highest price was approximately $4,720.
Bitcoin Price Targets
| Source | Probability | Price Target |
| — | — | — |
| Kalshi | 60%+ | $125,000 (min) |
| Polymarket | 50% | $120,000 (before March end) |
Regulatory Expectations
Polymarket bettors expect US regulators to greenlight XRP, Solana, and Litecoin ETFs by July 31, with probabilities of around 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. In contrast, the odds of a Dogecoin ETF approval by then are set at approximately 22%. Additionally, Kalshi users see a 59% chance that US President-elect Donald Trump will create a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency.
Regulatory Expectations
| Source | Probability | Event |
| — | — | — |
| Polymarket | 75% | XRP ETF approval by July 31 |
| Kalshi | 69% | Solana ETF approval by July 31 |
| Polymarket | 51% | Litecoin ETF approval by July 31 |
Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polling
Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence in the runup to the US elections in November, with trading volumes exceeding $4 billion tied to the US presidential race alone. Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
Prediction Markets vs. Traditional Polling
| Source | Trading Volume (Nov 2024) |
| — | — |
| Polymarket | $4 billion+ (US presidential race alone) |
Compared Signals
Compared to betting platforms, conventional futures markets anticipate more modest gains for cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2025. Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the US’ largest futures exchanges, are pricing in March spot prices of roughly $98,000 for BTC and $3,500 for ETH.
Compared Signals
| Source | Probability | Price Target |
| — | — | — |
| CME (March 2025) | – | $98,000 (BTC) |
| CME (March 2025) | – | $3,500 (ETH) |
Conclusion
The data from Polymarket and Kalshi suggests that bettors are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market in 2025. While conventional futures markets anticipate more modest gains, prediction markets signal a strong year for cryptocurrencies. However, it is essential to note that the accuracy of these predictions remains uncertain.
Sources
- Cointelegraph
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
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