The holiday period has come and gone, but Canadian politics remains gripped by a single question: when will Justin Trudeau make his move? The prime minister’s disappearance from public view since December 16th has left the country in suspense, with anxious Liberals urging him to take action.
Trudeau’s Disappearance Raises Questions
On December 16th, Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister and one of Trudeau’s most powerful allies in cabinet, resigned in a devastating public letter that criticized the prime minister. Since then, Trudeau has largely disappeared from public view, spending much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada.
According to a person familiar with his schedule, Trudeau is not planning any official events or appearances by the end of January. This lack of transparency and communication has raised questions about Trudeau’s leadership and his ability to navigate the party’s internal struggles.
Liberals Urge Trudeau to Act Quickly
The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, believes that if the current polling numbers hold up in an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats.
"It’s not tenable for the prime minister to stay," said Blois, a Liberal member from the four easternmost provinces. "Time is of the essence."
The Risk of a Forced Election
A forced election could be triggered if the three largest opposition parties vote ‘no confidence’ in the Trudeau government. This would not only put the party’s leadership at risk but also potentially lead to a loss of seats and power.
To avoid this scenario, Trudeau could resign but say he’s staying in office while a leadership race takes place. However, as Nanos pointed out, "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump."
The Road Ahead for the Liberal Party
Regardless of what happens next, the Liberal Party faces a difficult road ahead. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
As Nanos noted, "he took the Liberals out of the wilderness" when he became their leader two years ago. However, it’s possible that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election.
A Leadership Race: What to Expect
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run – under different circumstances, it would take even longer. Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.
To ensure continuity in government, Trudeau could resign but say he’s staying in office while a leadership race takes place. However, as Nanos pointed out, "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump."
Conclusion
The Liberal Party faces a difficult road ahead, and the longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. The question remains: when will Justin Trudeau make his move?