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Trading Strategies

Why You Should Buy Google In Advance Of Earnings And Hold It For At Least Six Months – a technical analysis of GOOG

October 4, 2025
Smartmachinenews

Why You Should Buy Google In Advance Of Earnings And Hold It For At Least Six Months – A Technical Analysis of GOOG

As Google prepares to release its second quarter earnings, many investors are left wondering what the future holds for this tech giant. While we can’t predict with certainty what will happen in the future, a historical analysis of Google’s past earnings releases offers some valuable insights into potential investment strategies.

To gain a better understanding of GOOG’s behavior, let’s take a look at its price trend over the past five years using Stock Rover. From this chart, it becomes clear that the price has generally been trending upward with some noise. To further clarify this trend, we can add the 200-day simple moving average to see how GOOG is performing in comparison to previous years.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average clearly shows that GOOG is indeed trending upward, but what about the noise around this trend? To better understand this noise and its impact on potential investment decisions, let’s examine Google’s earnings events by navigating to the ‘Events’ menu within Stock Rover. This chart reveals a fascinating pattern: starting in July 2009, GOOG’s price rises from July to January, followed by a decline from January to July, reaching a local minimum around the July earnings report. It appears that this pattern is repeating itself, with GOOG’s price falling for the last few months and its upcoming earnings release serving as a potential turning point.

Given this historical context, it would be wise to buy GOOG now and hold onto it at least through January. To further validate this theory, let’s break down the periods into six-month segments by entering in custom date ranges for the relevant periods. By doing so, we can see that GOOG has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two and a half years.

GOOG’s Six-Month Segments: A Closer Look

Let’s take a closer look at each six-month period to better understand GOOG’s behavior:

  1. January 2009 to July 2009: During this time, GOOG was still recovering from the financial crisis and outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 30%. The absolute percent changes for the S&P 500 and GOOG were around -1% and 30%, respectively.
  2. July 2009 to January 2010: GOOG continued its upward trend, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 27%. This is all the more impressive given that the S&P 500 increased by approximately 22% in this period, resulting in an absolute percent change for GOOG of 49%.
  3. January to July 2010: However, during this time frame, GOOG’s price fell significantly, underperforming the S&P 500 and coming in at -20%. The S&P 500 lost nearly 10% in this period.
  4. July to January 2011: Shortly after its earnings report in July, GOOG showed a dramatic comeback, outperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 13%. This is particularly impressive given that the S&P 500 gained 23% over this period, resulting in an absolute percentage increase of around 35%.
  5. January to July 2011: Unfortunately, GOOG’s price fell again, underperforming the S&P 500 and coming in at -20%. While the S&P 500 had a modest gain of 5%, GOOG is still down a total of 13% over the whole six months.
  6. July to January 2012: And yet, GOOG experienced another remarkable comeback, outperforming the S&P 500 by an impressive 32%. During this time frame, the S&P 500 fell near 5%, but GOOG’s absolute increase was around 37%.

Conclusion and Next Steps

As we’ve seen from this historical analysis, GOOG is indeed a second-half stock that consistently outperforms in the latter half of each year. Given its cyclical behavior over the past two and a half years, it would be wise to buy GOOG now and hold onto it at least through January. Additionally, considering GOOG’s attractive price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) and price-to-cash-flow ratio (P/CF), as well as its position comfortably above the market, make it an all-around attractive investment.

While this analysis is certainly not a guarantee of future performance, it does offer valuable insights into potential investment strategies. And with the release of GOOG’s second quarter earnings today, it appears that this pattern is repeating itself once again. Stay tuned for our next update in January to see how this theory pans out!